Rather than "higher for longer" messaging, continued disinflation amidst falling M2, shows that the Fed should shift its monetary policy stance in order to help avoid tipping the US into a recession.
Yep, as long as the M2 money supply continues to fall, deflation remains a risk. Should deflation arise, and the money printers be fired up in response, then back the yo-yo moves to another potential bout of high inflation.
The only PCE analysis I read - and I think the only I need to read!
Thank you! :-)
Thanks for reading, Simon - I'm glad that you enjoyed the analysis!
I concur 👍
Deflation will be the risk.. oh boy, the BRRRRR after that scare!
Yep, as long as the M2 money supply continues to fall, deflation remains a risk. Should deflation arise, and the money printers be fired up in response, then back the yo-yo moves to another potential bout of high inflation.
Extremely insightful as always. Thanks
Thank you, Marlon!