US Economic and Market Summary & Outlook

This section of the Economics Uncovered website is scheduled to be regularly revised on an ad-hoc basis in order to better help you to navigate the complex outlook for the US economy and financial markets. To easily keep up-to-date with my latest insights and to review any section of interest, please bookmark this page for easy access.

Last updated: 5 July 2024

Report outline

• Executive summary

• Money supply, bank credit & liquidity

  • M2 begins to rise, but growth remains relatively constrained

  • Bank credit impacted by higher interest rates and QT, but it has returned to growth

  • Abundant liquidity and a large federal government deficit drives bank deposit growth, stimulating the economy and breaking the link to QT

  • While the RRP boost is getting closer to an end, a broadly favourable liquidity backdrop is expected in 2H24 — but will it be enough to materially boost the US economy?

• GDP, personal spending and income

  • 1Q24 real final sales to domestic purchasers growth moderates as real PCE growth deceler…