US Economic Summary & Outlook: December 2023

While most economic indicators continue to point to a moderating economy, they generally remain at fairly reasonable levels, suggesting that the US economy should maintain a solid footing in 1Q24.

The M2 money supply has now recorded 12 consecutive months of YoY declines, yet rapid declines in the Fed’s RRP facility are acting to offset Fed tightening.

Inflation is rapidly dissipating, with 6-month annualised headline, core and supercore PCE growth all at 2% or below in November. With another large fall in gasoline prices in December expected to s…