While adjusted core services prices saw another month of elevated growth, the broader disinflationary trend remains intact - particularly for the PCEPI, which is less exposed to lagging rents.
Good morning Steven, so if your February estimate for CPI rises to 3.2% considering the base effect outgoing do you see another monthly change of +0.5%?
My forecast is built off of non-seasonally adjusted data, so I don't have an official MoM seasonally adjusted estimate, but given that the YoY growth rate between the seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted measures are generally very close, my YoY estimate of 3.2%, implies a seasonally adjusted MoM change of ~0.4%-0.5%.
But if to get back to the target we don't have to see monthly variations greater than +0.2%, don't you think that this will greatly delay the achievement of 2% if not even trigger an inflationary recovery? Unless from March the monthly variations return to a maximum of +0.2%.
Good morning Steven, so if your February estimate for CPI rises to 3.2% considering the base effect outgoing do you see another monthly change of +0.5%?
Hi Angelo,
My forecast is built off of non-seasonally adjusted data, so I don't have an official MoM seasonally adjusted estimate, but given that the YoY growth rate between the seasonally adjusted and non-seasonally adjusted measures are generally very close, my YoY estimate of 3.2%, implies a seasonally adjusted MoM change of ~0.4%-0.5%.
But if to get back to the target we don't have to see monthly variations greater than +0.2%, don't you think that this will greatly delay the achievement of 2% if not even trigger an inflationary recovery? Unless from March the monthly variations return to a maximum of +0.2%.