The employment market is losing momentum
Signs of a slowing US employment market are increasing, adding further conviction to my expectation that the US will enter a recession in 2023.
While January’s bumper jobs report drew plenty of headlines and led to market expectations for future Fed rate hikes drastically increasing, February’s jobs report was largely lost amidst the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank.
While a deeper look at the latest employment data reveals some positive news, there’s also a host of items that suggest growing labour market weakness.
Let’s dive in.
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Q3 QCEW data reverses — now in-line with the monthly CES jobs report
Before analysing February’s jobs report, I will revisit a topic that I have previously spoken about — the difference between the comprehensive Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) employment report vs the monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) jobs report.
In a nutshell, the QCEW survey includes data from more than 95% of employers, while the CES establishment survey includes data from ~6% of all employers. In order to …