While the CPI is expected to see material further disinflation on a headline and core basis in 1H25, neither index is expected to fall to 2% by June: though the story could be different for the PCEPI.
My latest Medium-Term US Inflation Update is attached below, with forecasts now updated to June 2025.
In addition to the aggregate headline and core CPI forecasts, this latest update covers the implications of current growth rates in the M2 money supply on the inflation outlook, and provides an updated outlook for key CPI categories such as durables, food and shelter.
An extrapolation for the PCEPI that is based on my latest US CPI estimates is also provided for 2Q25.
The full report is available at the link below:
Economics Uncovered Medium Term Us Inflation Update
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