Welcome to Economics Uncovered, which exists as the banner under which I will be distributing my independent economics focused research.
Having long held a passion for economics, the creation of Economics Uncovered has been a long time coming. Though given that I was enjoying a relatively comfortable existence as a sell-side research analyst, why was 2022 the time to officially start my own independent economics research venture?
Given my particular interest and research focus on the money supply and inflation, witnessing the lack of understanding and/or blissful ignorance to the longer-run consequences of the enormous money printing that ensued in many nations around the world in response to COVID, led me to decide that the time to start my own independent economics research venture was now.
Given such, it wouldn’t be surprising to read that a core tent of Economics Uncovered is to cover all things inflation. This includes an explanation of the theory underlying broad price changes, with a particular focus on its most important driver, the money supply. It also includes monthly US CPI previews and reviews, as well as longer term forecasting.
In addition to inflation, I conduct analyses of key data points including employment and GDP, provide breakdowns and explanations of key current events (with past examples including the collapse of SVB, the Fed’s operating losses and the impact of declining bank deposits on the wider banking system), and also write on the links between important historical economic events to the current economic climate.
Underlying all of this economic analysis, is a long-term mindset. A focus on ignoring the noise, and focusing on the bigger picture. I view this as being critically important, and as a key differentiating factor between my work, and much of today’s sell-side research, which often consists of reactive flip-flopping, as opposed to being thought provoking, long-term focused, idea generating, market leading research.
For while many of today’s economic policies are far too often short-sighted and fail to take into account longer-term impacts (which were highlighted on a grand scale in response to COVID), much of this problem stems from a society that has become overly short-sighted and which seeks instant gratification, eschewing a long-term mindset.
As a result, not only will such a society continue to be on the receiving end of policies that deliver band-aid fixes in order to try and avoid short-term pain (as opposed to providing a strong long-term foundation), but given the underlying societal layer driving this dynamic, those who are tasked with analysing such policies, and writing economic and market research, will very often be subject to the very same short-term thinking, which is often compounded by the pressure of working within a corporate/government environment.
Through Economics Uncovered, I intend to do something different. I intend to not only focus on the immediate impact of policies and economic occurrences, but to detail their longer-term ramifications. To not only reveal the first-order impacts, but to piece together how policies and economic events will broadly impact the wider economy as a whole.
In a world that is becoming increasingly encapsulated by groupthink, I aim to provide a voice of reason. To tell it how it really is. To provide common sense theoretical analysis, and to eschew the nonsensical mathematical models adopted by many an economist, whose predictive capability is better off replaced by the toss of a coin.
Whether you are a business owner, private or institutional investor, keen economic observer, or just want to understand a little bit more about the world, I hope that Economics Uncovered can be of great assistance to your individual endeavours.
To view some of my research highlights, and to better understand how Economics Uncovered could benefit you, please see the Research Highlights page.